Projected 2025-26 US soybean ending stocks are heavier this month, even as production was revised slightly lower.
Friday’s monthly supply-demand update from the USDA put new-crop ending stocks at 310 million bu, up 15 million from last month. That is above the average pre-report trade guess of 302 million but still below the previous year’s 350 million, which remained unchanged from June.
US soybean output for 2025 is now forecast at 4.335 billion bu, down 5 million from June due to a small reduction in planted and harvested acreage. Yield remains unchanged at 52.5 bu/acre.
The main story, however, is on the demand side. The 2025-26 US soybean crush was raised 50 million bu to a record 2.54 billion, driven by surging soybean oil use for biofuels. Expected soybean oil consumption for biofuel alone jumped by 1.6 billion pounds this month to 15.5 billion, up 23% from the three-year average. The increase is being fueled by expected policy support from the EPA, the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit, and a patchwork of state-level low carbon fuel mandates, the USDA said.
On the other hand, projected 2025-26 US soybean exports were slashed by 70 million bu to 1.745 billion bu, reflecting reduced competitiveness during the peak shipping window. Globally, the soybean picture mirrors the U.S. story: growing supplies, robust processing demand, and softer exports. Global soybean ending stocks for 2025-26 rose by 800,000 tonnes to 126.1 million, with Brazil and the US contributing to the increase. Stocks declined modestly in China, Argentina, and Mexico.
The 2024-25 Brazil and Argentina soybean production estimates were unchanged from last month at 154 million and 51 million tonnes, respectively, versus 147 million and 50 million a year earlier.
The season-average farm price forecast fell 15 cents this month to $10.10 per bushel. Soybean meal prices also declined $20 to $290 per short ton, while soybean oil prices climbed 7 cents to 53 cents per pound.
